Robust increase in population exposure to heat stress with increasing global warming

Abstract Extreme heat, particularly if combined with humidity, poses a severe risk to human health. To estimate future global of extreme heat humidity on health, we calculate indicators stress that have been commonly used: the Heat Index, Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature and Temperature, from latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) projections. We analyse how where different levels hazards will change, deadly, results are sensitive choice index used. evaluate this at country-level use population GDP | PPP growth scenario vulnerability each nation. Consistent previous studies, find South East Asia, Middle-East, highly exposed hazards, exposure increases by 20%–60% mean temperature change 1.5 3 ? C. However, also substantial in health for some vulnerable countries less adaptive capacity, such as West Africa, Central America. For these regions, about 20 more than 50% could be year average, independent warming , European USA several times per conditions daily level equal maximum 2003 wave.